Coupled climate–land‑use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa
Model uncertainty assessment for the multi-model ensemble mean onset of the first heatwave of the season during the historical period (1979 – 2014). (a) Coefficient of variation (CV), (b) the percentage of models that project values higher than the reference HWT, (c) Continuous rank probability score (CRPS), (d) Brier score, and (e) Heatwave timing (days-of-the-year).
As forests are cleared for cropland, the loss of natural cooling mechanisms could cause heatwaves in parts of Africa to last 12 times longer by 2100, creating "near-perennial" heat states.
The Problem We Set Out to Solve
Africa is in a heat crisis. But here is what makes it unfair: Africa contributes almost nothing to global warming, yet it is suffering the worst effects. The continent has less than 4% of global carbon emissions, but it faces some of the most intense heatwaves on Earth. Scientists have known the facts for years. But what we did not fully understand was how much of Africa's heat problem comes from global warming and how much comes from things happening within Africa itself? This is the question we aimed to address. Our latest study, Coupled climate–land-use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa, which was published in Communications Earth & Environment, looks at how heatwaves are becoming more dangerous in Africa.
Asymmetric heatwave intensification under divergent climate change mitigation pathways amplifies urban–rural exposure disparities
Projected changes in heatwave characteristics and latitudinal cross-sections from historical to future periods under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios for the mid-21st-century (NF) and late-21st-century (FF), using the multimodel ensemble mean. The heatwave characteristics presented are: (a–e) number, (f–j) frequency, (k–o) duration, and (p–t) timing.
Unmitigated climate change poses threats to human and environmental well-being through increasingly intense and frequent heatwaves. However, the future impact of heatwaves on urban and rural populations remains uncertain. We project intensified heatwave characteristics and earlier onsets across numerous global regions using bias-corrected climate models. The projected impacts of limiting global warming to either regional-rivalry (SSP370) or fossil-fueled development (SSP585) pathways differ significantly, with SSP585 resulting in substantially more persistence and intensity than SSP370. Under SSP370, high heatwave frequency (HWF) correlates with low heatwave number (HWN) in most tropical regions, but the opposite is true in polar regions. Moreover, heatwave intensity is mostly governed by radiative and advective forcing, while persistence depends on large-scale flow stability. We further demonstrate that heatwave exposure varies considerably across different climate regions and population strata, with rural populations exhibiting exposure comparable to urban populations.
Global Heatwaves Dynamics Under Climate Change Scenarios: Multidimensional Drivers and Cascading Impacts.
The total change in total population exposure to heatwave frequency as a result of climate, population, and interaction effects during (a) near-future under SSP 370, (b) far future under SSP 370, (c) near future under SSP 585, (d) far future under SSP 585, (e, f, g, h) contributions of climate, population, and interaction effects to the total change in population exposure, and (i, j, k, l) Climate region heatwave exposure due to total change, climate effect, population effect, and interaction effect, respectively.
Heatwaves are becoming more common due to climate change, posing serious challenges for human health, ecosystems, and water resources. This study explores the patterns and causes of heatwaves across 50 regions worldwide, examining both past and future patterns under different climate scenarios. Using advanced climate models and terrestrial water storage data, we investigate how regional factors, such as atmospheric moisture movement, influence heatwaves. We found that regional conditions play a significant role in shaping heatwave patterns. For example, in areas like Western Central Asia and East Asia, moisture loss from the atmosphere is linked to more frequent heatwaves. The study also highlights how heatwaves interact with droughts and temperature extremes. In many regions, extreme heat leads to significant water shortages and worsening drought conditions. However, in some cases, heatwaves can occur without causing drying, showing the diversity of impacts across regions. By 2100, the number of people exposed to heatwaves is expected to increase tenfold, particularly in South Asia and Eastern Africa, due to rising temperatures and population growth. These results highlight the urgent need for tailored solutions to reduce heatwave risks and protect the most vulnerable communities.
Minimizing uncertainties in climate projections and water budget reveals the vulnerability of freshwater to climate change
Seasonal WS classifications are based on the self-organizing maps and GMM for (A) the JJAS historical period, (B) the DJF historical period, (C) JJAS future projection under SSP 245, (D) DJF future projection under SSP 245, (E) JJAS future projection under SSP 370, (F) DJF future projection under SSP 370, (G) JJAS future projection under SSP 585, and (H) DJF future projection under SSP585. The black polygons represent the river basins. EWD, extreme WS deficit; VSWD, very strong WS deficit; SWD, strong WS deficit; MWD, moderate WS deficit; SLWD, slight WS deficit; NOM, normal condition; SLWS, slight WS surplus; MWS, moderate WS surplus; SWS, strong WS surplus; VSWS, very strong WS surplus; EWS, extreme WS surplus. In the future JJAS season under SSP 245, most basins in the Southern Hemisphere are projected to experience intensified WS deficits compared with the historical period. Tropical basins are expected to witness a northward shift in WS surplus under SSP 585, indicating drier conditions in the Southern Hemisphere and increased moisture slightly above the equator. During future DJF seasons, tropical regions exhibit a further northward shift in WS surplus under SSP 585, while SSP 245 portrays extreme WS deficits. Most Southern Hemisphere basins showcase wetter conditions under SSP 370 compared with SSP 245 and 585. These findings highlight significant shifts in water availability across basins, signaling an impending increase in aridity for many Southern Hemisphere areas and a trend toward wetter conditions near the equator during JJAS. This emphasizes the critical need for targeted and region-specific approaches in managing water resources amid changing climate dynamics.
Food security and human sustainability are at risk due to rising water needs, especially in areas where resources are scarce. This work advances the knowledge of terrestrial water storage changes (WS) in a warming world by assessing the WS patterns using observations and climate experiments. Results show that different factors impact moisture movements in and out of basins. Climate change and land use type are major drivers of observed trends and characteristics in WS surpluses or deficits.
Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events
2012 wildfire events. Anomaly for (a) VCI, (b) VHI, (c) TCI, (d) vegetation density, (e) heatwave severity, and (f) burned area. The black polygons represent basins. Positive anomalies denote favorable conditions related to moisture (a), combined moisture and thermal conditions (b), thermal conditions (c), higher vegetation density (d), increased heatwave severity (e), and elevated wildfire occurrences (f).
- Heatwave severity facilitated wildfire development by drying out dead fine fuel.
- Unfavorable thermal conditions intensified heatwave severity.
- Moisture and vegetation density abated heatwave severity in most basins.
- Drought absence does not guarantee favorable vegetation states.
- Lowest VCI, VHI, and TCI in the Murray-Darling basin during the Australian drought.
Land use and land cover dynamics : Implications for thermal stress and energy demands
- Primary nonforest and secondary forests actively influence global thermal stress.
- Negative forest trends increased the severity of thermal stress.
- Future cooling demands will rise, and heating demands will decline.
- UTCI trend decreases at higher latitudes in the winter.
- Sub-periods with fast annual LULC changes recorded more significant UTCI trends.
Land surface dynamics and meteorological forcings modulate land surface temperature characteristics
Performance and spread of the training set of different machine learning models in the dry season; RSQ is the coefficient of determination, MBE is the mean bias error, RMSE is the root mean square error, PBIAS is the percentage bias, RRMSE is the relative root mean square error, and u95 is the uncertainty at the 95 % confidence level. The rank combines all metrics based on Eqs. (5) and (6). “NN” means neural network and “RBF” means radial basis function.
- Hot and cold spots are identified with machine learning
- Areas with unhealthy vegetation are synonymous with high Land Surface Temperature (LST)
- Strong southwesterly trade winds lower the LST inland
- Dust transport from the Sahara attenuates solar radiation, producing cooler LST
- Rugged terrain and southwest-facing slopes are associated with a high heat load
Peer-Reviewed Publications
📅 2026
68. Adeyeri, O.E., Ishola, K.A., Ajadi, S.A., Ekot, B.C., Folorunsho, A.H., Ayegbusi, K.I., Taguela, T.N., Akinsanola, A.A., Ndehedehe, C.E., Morakinyo, T.E., 2026. Coupled climate–land‑use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa. Communications Earth & Environment 7, 85. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03110-6
67. Taguela, T.N., Raji, I., Akinsanola, A.A., Singhai, P., Adeyeri, O.E., Wainwright, C.M., Barimalala, R., 2026. Impacts of 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming on the Onset, Cessation, and Length of the Rainy Season in Global Land Monsoon Regions. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 43, 87–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4386-9
66. Chahal, M., Kalu, I., Adeyeri, O.E., Majumdar, S., Helfer, F., Ndehedehe, C., 2026. Machine learning downscaling of GRACE satellite data for local‑scale water storage assessment in South‑East Queensland, Australia. Geomatica 78(1), 100094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomat.2026.100094
65. Ajadi, S.A., Nadarajah, S., Adeyeri, O.E., Akano, H., 2026. Leveraging Machine Learning and Earth Observation for Agricultural Drought Propagation in North‑Central Nigeria. Preprint (Preprints.org). https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202602.2002.v1
📅 2025
64. Adeyeri, O.E., 2025. Hydrology and Climate Change in Africa: Contemporary Challenges, and Future Resilience Pathways. Water 17, 2247. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152247
63. Adeyeri, O.E., Ajadi, S.A., Ekot, B., Folorunsho, A., Ayegbusi, K., Taguela, T., Akinsanola, A., Ndehedehe, C.E., 2025. Regional Analysis of Heatwave Intensification and Heat Stress in Africa: Projections, Environmental Drivers, and Urban Population Exposure. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5223661
62. Adeyeri, O.E., Ajadi, S.A., Ishola, K.A., Mustapha, S.O., 2025. The societal impact of heatwave intensification and heat stress on African Urban populations. Societal Impacts 6, 100148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socimp.2025.100148
61. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ishola, K.A., Akinsanola, A.A., Ahmed, N., Wang, X., 2025c. Asymmetric Heatwave Intensification Under Divergent Climate Change Mitigation Pathways Amplifies Urban–Rural Exposure Disparities. Weather and Climate Extremes 100821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100821
60. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ishola, K.A., Laux, P., Akinsanola, A.A., Dieng, M.D.B., Wang, X., 2025. Global Heatwaves Dynamics Under Climate Change Scenarios: Multidimensional Drivers and Cascading Impacts. Earth’s Future 13, e2025EF006486. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006486
59. Eludire, O., Faloye, O., Alatise, M., Ajayi, A., Oguntunde, P., Badmus, T., Fashina, A., Adeyeri, O., Olorunfemi, I., Ogunrinde, A., 2025. Evaluation of Evapotranspiration Prediction for Cassava Crop Using Artificial Neural Network Models and Empirical Models over Cross River Basin in Nigeria. Water 17, 87. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17010087
58. Adeyeri, O.E., 2025. Hydrology and Climate Change in Africa: Quaternary Dynamics, Contemporary Challenges, and Future Resilience Pathways. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202506.0067.v1
57. Akinsanola, A.A., Singhai, P., Taguela, T.N., Adeyeri, O.E., Morakinyo, T.E., Adebiyi, A.A., 2025. City and Built Environment 3, 24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44213-025-00063-6
56. Faloye, O.T., Ajayi, A.E., Kamchoom, V., Sinsamutpadung, N., Adeyeri, O., Ogunwole, J.O., 2025. Forecasting maize yield from growth parameters using machine learning in a biochar-inorganic fertilizer amended soil under drip irrigation. Smart Agricultural Technology 12, 101490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2025.101490
55. Faloye, O.T., Samuel, S., Okunola, AA, Kamchoom, V, Sinsamutpadung, N, Adeyeri, O., 2025. Simulation of emitter discharge along drip laterals under drip fertigation system using artificial neural network. PLOS ONE 20, e0326948. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326948
54. Akadiri, S.A., Dada, P.O.O., Badejo, A.A., Adeosun, O.J., Ogunrinde, A.T., Faloye, O.T., Kamchoom, V., Adeyeri, O.E., 2025. The Effect of Retention Time and Seasonal Variation on the Characterization of Phyto-Remediated Aquaculture Wastewater in a Constructed Wetland. Biology 14, 1390. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14101390
53. Kalu, I., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ferreira, V.G., Adeyeri, O.E., Okwuashi, O., Kennard, M.J., 2025. Basin-scale evaluation of current and future climate influences on groundwater variations using satellite and model observations. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 62, 102832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102832
52. Akinsanola, A.A., Adebiyi, A.A., Bobde, V., Adeyeri, O.E., Tamoffo, A.T., Danso, D.K., 2025. Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change. Commun Earth Environ 6, 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01981-9
51. Adeliyi, T.E., Akinsanola, A.A., Taguela, T.N., Adeyeri, O.E., Singhai, P., 2025. Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections. Science of The Total Environment 977, 179374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179374
50. Ahmed, N., Lu, H., Đurin, B., Kranjčić, N., Adeyeri, O.E., Iqbal, M.S., Youssef, Y.M., 2025. Is the Indus Basin Drying? Disparities in the Environmental Flow, Inflow, and Outflow of the Basin. Water 17, 1557. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17101557
49. Bobde, V., Ayegbusi, K., Akinsanola, A.A., Adeyeri, O.E., Morakinyo, T.E., Adebiyi, A.A., 2025. Anthropogenic warming is accelerating recent heatwaves in Africa. Commun Earth Environ 6, 578. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02578-6
48. Danso, D.K., Quagraine, K.T., Akinsanola, A.A., Amekudzi, L.K., Adeyeri, O.E., 2025. Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa. Environ. Res.: Climate 4, 025006. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/add31f
47. Ndehedehe, C.E., Adeyeri, O.E., Ferreira, V.G., Zhou, W., 2025a. Terrestrial water storage in Australia under stress from compound climate extremes. Resources, Environment and Sustainability 21, 100242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100242
46. Ndehedehe, C.E., Kalu, I., Ferreira, V.G., Onojeghuo, A.O., Adeyeri, O.E., Tourian, M.J., Currell, M., Jackson, S., 2025b. Tracking freshwater depletion in Northern Australia: A multi-satellite approach. Ecological Informatics 90, 103248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103248
📅 2024
45. Ahmed, N., Lu, H., Yu, Z., Adeyeri, O.E., Iqbal, M.S., Su, J., 2024. A distributed modeling approach to water balance implications from changing land cover dynamics in permafrost environments. Geography and Sustainability 5, 561–576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.004
44. Adeyeri, O.E., Folorunsho, A.H., Adeliyi, T.E., Ayegbusi, K.I., Akinsanola, A.A., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ahmed, N., Babalola, T.E., 2024a. Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa. Science of The Total Environment 955, 177174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177174
43. Adeyeri, O.E., Folorunsho, A.H., Ayegbusi, K.I., Bobde, V., Adeliyi, T.E., Ndehedehe, C.E., Akinsanola, A.A., 2024b. Land surface dynamics and meteorological forcings modulate land surface temperature characteristics. Sustainable Cities and Society 101, 105072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.105072
42. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C.E., Wang, X., 2024c. Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events. Science of The Total Environment 912, 169261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169261
41. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C.E., Wang, X., Ishola, K.A., Laux, P., 2024d. Minimizing uncertainties in climate projections and water budget reveals the vulnerability of freshwater to climate change. One Earth 7, 72–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.12.013. Received widespread media coverage and ranked in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
40. Ahmed, N., Lü, H., Adeyeri, O.E., 2024. Innovative trend analysis for the streamflow sub-time series of the source Region of the Yangtze River. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 6751–6770. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05029-y
39. Bobde, V., Akinsanola, A.A., Folorunsho, A.H., Adebiyi, A.A., Adeyeri, O.E., 2024. Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models. Environ. Res. Lett. 19, 074009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545c
38. Ndehedehe, C.E., Adeyeri, O.E., 2024. Changes in Drought Characteristics and Heatwave Propagation Over Groundwater Basins in Australia. Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00463-4
37. Ogunrinde, A.T., Adeyeri, O.E., Xian, X., Yu, H., Jing, Q., Faloye, O.T., 2024. Long-Term Spatiotemporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration Across Arid Asia and Africa. Water 16, 3161. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16223161
📅 2023
36. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Laux, P., Ndehedehe, C.E., Wang, X., Usman, M., Akinsanola, A.A., 2023a. Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias‐Corrected General Circulation Models. Earth’s Future 11, e2022EF003303. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003303
35. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Laux, P., Wang, X., Dieng, D., Widana, L.A.E., Usman, M., 2023b. Land use and land cover dynamics: Implications for thermal stress and energy demands. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 179, 113274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113274
34. Ahmed, N., Lü, H., Ahmed, S., Adeyeri, O.E., Ali, S., Hussain, R., Shah, S., 2023a. Transboundary River Water Availability to Ravi Riverfront under Changing Climate: A Step towards Sustainable Development. Sustainability 15, 3526. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043526
33. Ahmed, N., Zhu, L., Wang, G., Adeyeri, O.E., Shah, S., Ali, S., Marhaento, H., Munir, S., 2023b. Occurrence and Distribution of Long-Term Variability in Precipitation Classes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River. Sustainability 15, 5834. https://doi.org/10.3390/su150734
32. Faloye, O.T., Ajayi, A.E., Babalola, T., Omotehinse, O.O., Adeyeri, O.E., Adabembe, B.A., Ogunrinde, A.T., Okunola, A., Fashina, A., 2023. Modelling Crop Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency of Maize Using Artificial Neural Network and Linear Regression Models in Biochar and Inorganic Fertilizer-Amended Soil under Varying Water Applica1tions. Water 15, 2294. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122294
31. Ndehedehe, C.E., Adeyeri, O.E., Onojeghuo, A.O., Ferreira, V.G., Kalu, I., Okwuashi, O., 2023a. Understanding global groundwater-climate interactions. Science of The Total Environment 904, 166571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166571
30. Ndehedehe, C.E., Ferreira, V.G., Adeyeri, O.E., Correa, F.M., Usman, M., Oussou, F.E., Kalu, I., Okwuashi, O., Onojeghuo, A.O., Getirana, A., Dewan, A., 2023b. Global assessment of drought characteristics in the Anthropocene. Resources, Environment and Sustainability 12, 100105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2022.100105
📅 2022
29. Adeyeri, O.E., Laux, P., Ishola, K.A., Zhou, W., Balogun, I.A., Adeyewa, Z.D., Kunstmann, H., 2022. Homogenising meteorological variables: Impact on trends and associated climate indices. Journal of Hydrology 607, 127585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127585
28. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Wang, X., Zhang, R., Laux, P., Ishola, K.A., Usman, M., 2022. The trend and spatial spread of multisectoral climate extremes in CMIP6 models. Sci Rep 12, 21000. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25265-4
27. Dieng, D., Cannon, A.J., Laux, P., Hald, C., Adeyeri, O.E., Rahimi, J., Srivastava, A.K., Mbaye, M.L., Kunstmann, H., 2022. Multivariate Bias‐Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Change Simulations for West Africa: Performance and Climate Change Implications. JGR Atmospheres 127, e2021JD034836. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034836
26. Usman, M., Manzanas, R., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ahmad, B., Adeyeri, O.E., Dudzai, C., 2022a. On the Benefits of Bias Correction Techniques for Streamflow Simulation in Complex Terrain Catchments: A Case-Study for the Chitral River Basin in Pakistan. Hydrology 9, 188. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9110188
25. Usman, M., Ndehedehe, C.E., Ahmad, B., Manzanas, R., Adeyeri,O.E., 2022b. Modeling streamflow using multiple precipitation products in a topographically complex catchment. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 8, 1875–1885. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01198-1
24. Usman, M., Ndehedehe, C.E., Farah, H., Ahmad, B., Wong, Y., Adeyeri,O.E., 2022c. Application of a Conceptual Hydrological Model for Streamflow Prediction Using Multi-Source Precipitation Products in a Semi-Arid River Basin. Water 14, 1260. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14081260
📅 2021
23. Adeyeri, O.E., Ishola, K.A., 2021. Variability and Trends of Actual Evapotranspiration over West Africa: The Role of Environmental Drivers. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 308–309, 108574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108574
22. Larbi, I., Hountondji, F.C.C., Dotse, S.-Q., Mama, D., Nyamekye, C., Adeyeri, O.E., Djan’na Koubodana, H., Odoom, P.R.E., Asare, Y.M., 2021. Local climate change projections and impact on the surface hydrology in the Vea catchment, West Africa. Hydrology Research 52, 1200–1215. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.096
21. Laux, P., Rötter, R.P., Webber, H., Dieng, D., Rahimi, J., Wei, J., Faye, B., Srivastava,A.K., Bliefernicht, J., Adeyeri, O.E., Arnault, J., Kunstmann, H., 2021. To bias correct or not to bias correct? An agricultural impact modelers’ perspective on regional climat2e model data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 304–305, 108406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108406
20. Menang, K.P., Gbode, I.E., Adeyeri, O.E., 2021. The effect of the differences in near-infrared water vapour continuum models on the absorption of solar radiation. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 781–788. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00781-6
19. Oyerinde, G.T., Lawin, A.E., Adeyeri, O.E., 2021. Multi-variate infilling of missing daily discharge data on the Niger basin. Water Practice and Technology 16, 961–979. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2021.048
18. Usman, M., Ndehedehe, C.E., Manzanas, R., Ahmad, B., Adeyeri, O.E., 2021. Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrometeorological Characteristics of the Soan River Basin, Pakistan. Atmosphere 12, 792. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060792
📅 2020
17. Adeyeri, O.E., Laux, P., Arnault, J., Lawin, A.E., Kunstmann, H., 2020. Conceptual hydrological model calibration using multi-objective optimization techniques over the transboundary Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad Area, West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 27, 100655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100655
16. Adeyeri, O. E., Laux, P., Lawin, A.E., Arnault, J., 2020a. Assessing the impact of human activities and rainfall variability on the river discharge of Komadugu-Yobe Basin, Lake Chad Area. Environ Earth Sci 79, 143. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8875-y
15. Adeyeri, O. E., Laux, P., Lawin, A.E., Ige, S.O., Kunstmann, H., 2020b. Analysis of hydrometeorological variables over the transboundary Komadugu-Yobe basin, West Africa. Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, 1339–1354. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.283
14. Adeyeri, O. E., Laux, P., Lawin, A.E., Oyekan, K.S.A., 2020c. Multiple bias-correction of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 climate models temperature projection: a case study of the transboundary Komadugu-Yobe river basin, Lake Chad region, West Africa. SN Appl. Sci. 2, 1221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-3009-4
13. Ahmed, N., Wang, G., Adeyeri, O. E., Hashmi, M.Z.-R., Ali, S., Munir, S., 2020a. Climatic Variability and Periodicity for Upstream Sub-Basins of the Yangtze River, China. Water 12, 842. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030842
12. Ahmed, N., Wang, G., Adeyeri, O. E., Munir, S., Hu, Z., Shakoor, A., Imran, M.A., 2020b. Temperature trends and elevation dependent warming during 1965–2014 in headwaters of Yangtze River, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau. J. Mt. Sci. 17, 556–571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5438-3
11. Adeyeri, O. E., 2020. Modelling COVID-19 cases in Nigeria: Forecasts, uncertainties, projections, and the link with weather. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-41193/v1
📅 2019
10. Adeyeri, O. E., Lawin, A.E., Laux, P., Ishola, K.A., Ige, S.O., 2019. Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences. Weather and Climate Extremes 23, 1001943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100194
9. Gbode, I.E., Adeyeri, O.E., Menang, K.P., Intsiful, J.D.K., Ajayi, V.O., Omotosho, J.A., Akinsanola, A.A., 2019. Observed changes in climate extremes in Nigeria. Meteorological Applications 26, 642–654. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1791
8. Ishola, K.A., Fealy, Rowan, Mills, G., Fealy, Reamonn, Green, S., Jimenez-Casteneda, A., Adeyeri, O.E., 2019. Developing regional calibration coefficients for estimation of hourly global solar radiation in Ireland. International Journal of Sustainable Energy 38, 297–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2018.1499645
📅 2018
7. Akinsanola, A.A., Ajayi, V.O., Adejare, A.T., Adeyeri, O.E., Gbode, I.E., Ogunjobi, K.O., Nikulin, G., Abolude, A.T., 2018. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models. Theor Appl Climatol 132, 437–450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2087-8
📅 2017
6. Adeyeri, O.E., Akinsanola, A.A., Ishola, K.A., 2017. Investigating surface urban heat island characteristics over Abuja, Nigeria: Relationship between land surface temperature and multiple vegetation indices. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 7, 57–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.06.005
5. Ige, S.O., Ajayi, V.O., Adeyeri, O.E., Oyekan, K.S.A., 2017. Assessing remotely sensed temperature humidity index as human comfort indicator relative to landuse landcover change in Abuja, Nigeria. Spat. Inf. Res. 25, 523–533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-017-0118-2
4. Adeyeri, O.E., Lamptey, B.L., Lawin, A.E. & Sanda, I.S., 2017a. Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Trend and Homogeneity Analysis in Komadugu-Yobe Basin, Lake Chad Region. J Climatol Weather Forecasting 05. https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000214
3. Adeyeri, O.E., Ishola, K.A., & Okogbue, E.C., 2017b. Climate Change and Coastal Floods: The Susceptibility of Coastal Areas of Nigeria. J Coast Zone Manag 20. https://doi.org/10.4172/2473-3350.1000443
📅 2016
2. Ishola, K.A., Okogbue, E.C., Adeyeri, O.E., 2016a. Dynamics of surface urban biophysical compositions and its impact on land surface thermal field. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 2, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0265-9
1. Ishola, K.A., Okogbue, E.C., Adeyeri, O.E., 2016b. A Quantitative Assessment of Surface Urban Heat Islands Using Satellite Multitemporal Data over Abeokuta, Nigeria. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 2016, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/3170789
Peer-Reviewed Book of Abstracts
8. Bobde, V., Akinsanola, A.A., Folorunsho, A., Adebiyi, A.A., Adeyeri, O.E., 2024. Robust Intensification of Very Wet and Dry Precipitation Conditions in Africa under Future Warming. Presented at the AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, pp. A23A-1946.
7. Sandaruwan J.W.N., Zhou, W., Collins, M., Wang, X., W. A, E.L., Adeyeri, O.E., 2024. Genesis, Trends, and Prospects of Marine Heatwaves in the Indian Ocean: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 21st Annual Meeting, Pyeongchang, South Korea.
6. Adeyeri, O.E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C., Ishola, K., Laux, P., Wang, X., 2024. Local Land-Climate Dynamics Worsen Climate Extremes and Heighten the Risk of Heat Stress for Humans: 21st Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society. Pyeongchang, South Korea.
5. Widana Arachchige, E.L., Zhou, W., Toumi, R., Wang, X., Adeyeri, O.E., Wijendra Naidhelage, D.S.J., 2024. Evaluation of the Genesis Potential Indices in the CMIP6 Models with Bias Correction Methods and Projecting Future Tropical Cyclone Potential: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 21st Annual Meeting. Pyeongchang, South Korea.
4. Sandaruwan J.W.N., D., Zhou, W., Collins, M., Adeyeri, O.E., Wang, X., Lakshani Widana Arachchige, E., Zekai, N., 2024. Future Projections of Marine Heatwaves in the Indian Ocean under Different Socioeconomic Pathways. Presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2024 (EGU24), p. 1252. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1252
3. Ochei, M.C., Oluleye, A., Babalola, S.O., Adeyeri, O., 2018. Modelling of Land Use Dynamics and Temperature Response: Futuristic Scenario of Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria. Presented at the 10th International Conference on Urban Climate/14th Symposium on the Urban Environment, AMS.
2. Adeyeri, O.E. & Okogbue, E.C. 2015. "Spatial and temporal trend of NDVI over Abuja using Landsat images." Annual conference proceedings of the School of Earth and Mineral Sciences (SEMS), Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
1. Adeyeri, O.E., Okogbue, E.C. & Akinluyi, F.O. 2014. "Monitoring daily evapotranspiration and managing water resources in Wushishi, Niger State, using Landsat 8 imagery." African Geophysical Society (AGS) conference, Abuja, Nigeria. 2014-A004-O-007
Peer-Reviewed Books and Conference Proceedings
9. Adejato, K.O., Adeyeri, O., Salubi, O., 2018. Use of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in Accessing the Spatial Distribution of Bitumen in the Dahomey Sub-Basin, Southwestern Nigeria. https://doi.org/10.9790/0990-0601022031
8. Taguela, T.N., Akinsanola, A.A., Bobde, V., Raji, I., Adeyeri, O.E., Adebiyi, A.A., 2025. Precipitation distribution over Africa: observations and modelling, in: Aerosols and Precipitation Over Africa. Elsevier, pp. 121–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44314050-1.00009-8
7. Okogbue, E.C., Balogun, I.A., Akinbobola, A., Adeyeri, O.E., Oluleye, A., Ajayi, V.O., Akinluyi, F.O., Akinwumiju, A.S., Ige, S.O., Raji, I.A. 2023. "Detecting changes in Precipitation Extremes Using Global Circulation Models in the Ogun–Osun River Basin, Southwest Nigeria." Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science, 22, 1 ISSN: 2006-7003
6. Faloye, O.T., Ajayi, A.E., Babalola, T., Adabembe, B., Adeyeri, O.E., Ogunrinde, A.T., Okunola, A., Fashina, A. 2023. "Comparison between the performance of artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in modelling crop evapotranspiration of a maize crop in soil amended with biochar and inorganic fertilizer." 2023 International Conference on Science, Engineering and Business for Sustainable Development Goals (SEB-SDG), pp. 1-8, https://doi.org//10.1109/SEB-SDG57117.2023.10124578.
5. Okogbue, E.C., Balogun, I.A., Akinbobola, A., Adeyeri, O.E., Oluleye, A., Ajayi, V.O., Akinluyi, F.O., Akinwumiju, A.S. & Ige, S.O. 2021. "GIS-based Analysis of Drainage Morphometry and Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the River Ogun-Osun Basin, Southwestern Nigeria." Journal of Sustainable Technology, 11, 2. ISSN: 2251-0680. https://journals.futa.edu.ng/papers/paper_5_1670610528.pdf
4. Adeyeri, O.E., Okogbue, E.C., Akinluyi, F.O. & Ishola, K.A. Spatio-Temporal Trend of Vegetation Cover Over Abuja Using Landsat Datasets. International Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Research 3. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ijaeri/262826.html
3. Akande, R.O., Adeyeri, O.E. & Akinbobola, A. 2015. "Assessing the trend of total column ozone over Ikeja and Warri, Nigeria." In Proceedings of climate change, environmental challenges, and sustainable development. ISBN 978-978-53811-9-1
2. Adeyeri, O.E., Okogbue, E.C., Ige, S.O. & Ishola, K.A. 2015. "Estimating the land surface temperature over Abuja using different Landsat sensors." In Proceedings of climate change, environmental challenges, and sustainable development. ISBN 978-978-53811-9-1
1. Adeyeri O.E. & Okogbue E.C. Effect of land use land cover on land surface temperature in Abuja using remote sensing and GIS techniques. 2014." In Proceedings of climate change and sustainable economic development. ISBN 978-978-521-43-6-9
Professional Engagements & Knowledge Exchange
1. Keynote Speaker on “The unseen threat: heatwaves, health, and vulnerable populations in major African cities.” Africa Climate Forum, Oct 4, 2025.
2. Panel Reviewer for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Danida Fellowship, Oct 1-12, 2025.
3. Attended and presented at a workshop on lethal humidity." The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia, Oct 14, 2025.
4. Attended the Minderoo Lethal Humidity online workshop, Oct 2, 2025.
5. Attended the NCI-organized workshop on Deep Learning Model Development in Weather and Climate Studies, Oct 30, 2025.
6. Attended and presented at “the ARC Center for Excellence organized workshop on Understanding the precipitation/soil moisture feedback.”, Canberra, April 21-25, 2025.
7. Attended and presented at ARC Center for Excellence-organized workshop on climate extremes, Tasmania, Nov 24-28, 2025.
8. Attended the CSIRO online conference on compound extremes, June 6, 2025.
9. Attended and presented at the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) conference, PyeongChang, South Korea, Jun 23-28, 2024.
10. Keynote Speaker on "Climate extremes in the 21st century: implications for freshwater resources and human exposure." Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan Campus, Brisbane, Australia, Feb 7, 2024.
11. Keynote Speaker on "Application of big data in climate extremes and water management." Unity Water’s Executive & Senior Leader Strategic Workforce Planning Workshop, Caboolture, Queensland, Australia, Feb 7, 2024.
12. Attended the CITYU’s workshop on "Understanding human evolution in the context of past climate change." City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Dec 2, 2022.
13. Attended the CITYU’s workshop on "The role of climate change on tropical cyclones represented by high-resolution earth system model simulations." City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Nov 17, 2022.
14. Attended the CITYU’s workshop on "How large-scale atmospheric circulation changes drive fire activity in equatorial Asia and southeastern Siberia." City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Sep 21, 2022.
15. Attended the CITYU’s workshop on "multi-Hazard risks of compound hydroclimatic extremes under climate change." City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Sep 9, 2022.
16. Attended and presented at the "Open HYPE Course 2022." SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, Sep 7, 2022.
17. Attended the international workshop on “Atmospheric Science Frontiers." Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Jul 7-8, 2022.
18. Attended the “IS-ENES3 webinar on ESMValTool.” Virtual, Jul 7-8, 2022.
19. Attended the "DAAD ClimapAfrica Conference." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, May 24, 2023.
20. Attended the "Climate and Water Forum 2022." Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, May 6-21, 2022.
21. Attended the international conference on “Air-Sea Interaction and Climate Dynamics." Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Nov 19-20, 2021.
22. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Solar Climate Engineering Research in Africa." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Nov 18, 2021.
23. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Climate data analysis and visualization." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Sep 28-Oct 13, 2021.
24. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Homogenising meteorological variables for hydrological and climate extremes." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Aug 27, 2021.
25. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Air Quality Studies over West Africa using COSMO-MUSCAT." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Jul 30, 2021.
26. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model Setup for a catchment." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Jan 27, 2021.
27. Attended the "DAAD ClimapAfrica Conference." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Oct 28-29, 2020.
28. Attended the workshop on "Deep Learning with Keras and Tensorflow." Virtual, Oct 7, 2020.
29. Facilitated the DAAD workshop on "Basic Application of QGIS For Geospatial Analysis." DAAD, Bonn, Germany, Sep 17, 2020.
30. Attended and presented at the ICTP-organized School on “Climate and Environmental Modelling in the West African Region”, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, March 11-19, 2019.
31. Attended and presented at the "World Symposium on Climate Change Adaptation." Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria, Sep 10-12, 2019.
32. Attended and presented at the SMHI school on "Multi-basin modeling using World-Wide HYPE at the local/regional scale." SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, Sep 4-6, 2018.
33. Attended and presented at the NASA-organized workshop on "Interdisciplinary Remote Sensing, Modeling, and Validation of Environmental Processes." Kwame Nkrumah University, Kumasi, Ghana, Jun 11-17, 2017.
34. Attended and presented at the BMBF-organized workshop on "Hydro-climate analysis and remote sensing." WASCAL competence center, Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso, Mar 13-20, 2017.
35. Attended and presented at the BMBF-organized workshop on "Data provision to WASCAL data infrastructure." WASCAL competence center, Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso, Mar 17, 2017.
36. Attended the BMBF-organized workshop on "Introductory seminar on climate change and adapted land use." GIMPA, Accra, Ghana, Mar 9, 2016.
37. Attended and presented at the WASCAL-organized workshop on "High-Performance Computing (HPC) for climate modeling." Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria, Jun 15, 2015.
38. Attended and presented at the ICTP-organized workshop on "Water resources planning and management in the face of hydro-climatological extremes and variability." International Centre of Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Center, Trieste, Italy, Apr 26-May 7, 2015.
Selected Projects
Thermodynamic Assessment of Thermal Stress and Human Body Exergy Consumption Across Australia (June 2025 – Present)
Sponsored by the Australian Research Council Grants.
Collaborated with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (Fenner School, Australian National University, Australia).
o Conceptualized and implemented a pioneering bivariate UTCI-Exergy framework, successfully uncovering four thermodynamically distinct climate zones across Australia, providing a precise measure of human physiological burden that is not apparent from conventional temperature-based indices.
o Conducted high-resolution, multi-decadal trend analysis (1979–2024) that revealed summer warming trends reaching 5–7°C/decade in key regions, underscoring a fundamental transformation of the thermal environment and identifying priority areas for urgent public health interventions.
o Employed XGBoost machine learning to isolate and quantify regime-dependent thermoregulatory pathways (e.g., convective dominance in the arid interior), which provides the essential evidence base for refining heat-health warning systems and developing targeted adaptation strategies
Threats to freshwater availability under compound climate extreme events Jun 2023 – Feb 2024
Collaborated with Christopher Ndehedehe (Australian Rivers Institute, Griffiths University, Australia).
o Engineered sophisticated machine-learning downscaling and bias-correction techniques for climate impact studies, resulting in a 90% increase in prediction accuracy and supporting data-driven decision-making for climate resilience strategies.
o Identified critical trends in the propagation of heatwaves into droughts in Australia, leading to a 25% improvement in early warning systems and better resource allocation strategies.
o Integrated 100 machine-learning water budget outputs into existing GRACE-TWS, enhancing resource allocation; improved water budget efficiency by 90% in Australia and decreased operational costs by 15%.
o Designed and refined 50+ water balance models, simulating climate change impacts on groundwater resources and achieving an 85% reduction in error margins, significantly improving model precision.
Global human exposure to heatwaves Oct 2023 – Mar 2024
Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants and Hong Kong RGC General Research Fund.
Collaborated with Christopher Ndehedehe (Australian Rivers Institute, Griffiths University, Australia), Wen Zhou (Fudan University, China), Ishola Kazeem (Maynooth University, Ireland), Patrick Laux (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany), Xuan Wang (City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR).
o Formulated cutting-edge approaches to analyze heatwave intensification through global interactions, advancing predictive accuracy by 40% and significantly improving climate risk assessments and management strategies.
o Leveraged comprehensive big data analytics to assess human heat stress exposure, identifying critical high-risk areas and facilitating focused interventions that could lower heat-related emergency visits by 22%.
o Developed AI algorithms for experiments analyzing land surface temperature dynamics, resulting in a 95% improvement in data interpretation and significantly advancing environmental research.
Accelerating the financing and implementation of low-carbon and climate-resilient priorities in agriculture and energy for agriculture in the 24 African countries Jan 2023 – Jun 2023
o Analyzed climate data from multiple sources, improving heatwave characterization accuracy by 20%.
o Projected future climate scenarios using an ensemble of 20 climate models, identifying potential impacts on agriculture and urban planning.
o Evaluated environmental impacts of projects, providing recommendations that reduced adverse effects by 55%.
o Developed localized strategies to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate impacts, increasing local scale adoption by 25%.
o Identified climate risks and assisted in resilience strategy development, reducing vulnerabilities by 30%.
o Collaborated with stakeholders to tailor solutions, enhancing client satisfaction by 35%.
o Created maps and reports to communicate findings, improving stakeholder understanding by 40%.
Impact of climate change and extremes on the hydrological response
and future water availability in West African Basins Feb 2020 – Mar 2022
Sponsored by DAAD, Germany.
Collaborated with Patrick Laux, Harald Kunstmann (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany), Jafet Andersson, Kristina Iseberg (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden)
o Analyzed the impact of climate variability on water availability in Lake Chad Basin, enhancing interpretation by 45%.
o Employed advanced hydrological modeling techniques, improving water resource assessment accuracy by 80%.
o Investigated climatic and hydrological interactions, providing insights for regional water management strategies.
o Integrated interdisciplinary data sources, increasing research comprehensiveness by 40%.
o Facilitated sustainable water resource management strategies, influencing policy recommendations.
o Mentored fellow researchers, fostering a collaborative research environment and increasing productivity by 50%.
Earth Observational Dataset to Monitor Soil Moisture and
Quantify Drought Severity Jan 2018 – Mar 2018
Sponsored by the Committee on Space Research, Spain.
Collaborated with Ernesto Baeza (University of Valencia, Spain).
o Implemented methodologies for estimating soil moisture from satellite data, improving estimation accuracy by 30%.
o Validated satellite-derived soil moisture products, enhancing reliability by 25%.
o Conducted field campaigns for calibration, ensuring 95% data accuracy and reliability.
Modeling the hydrological response of Komadugu-Yobe basin,
Lake Chad region to climate change Nov 2016 – Jul 2019
Sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education, Germany.
Collaborated with Saidou Sanda (Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Niger), Benjamin Lamptey (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development, Niger), Patrick Laux, Harald Kunstmann (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany), Emmanuel Lawin (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin).
o Assessed climate extremes' impact on water resources, enhancing understanding by 30%.
o Refined hydrological models and performed statistical analysis, improving future projections by 90%.
o Collaborated with scientists to analyze historical data, identifying key climate trends.
o Advised on climate change adaptation strategies, influencing policy and practice.
o Engaged with stakeholders to develop water management plans, increasing plan adoption by 25%.
o Analyzed remote sensing data for variability assessments, enhancing resource management accuracy.
o Prepared technical reports and presentations, communicating findings to policymakers and managers.
Courses Taught
- Agricultural Meteorology
- Atmospheric Physics Experiments I
- World Climatology
- Atmospheric Radiation
- Atmospheric Physics Experiments II
- Boundary Layer and Turbulence
- Hydrometeorology
- Dynamic Oceanography
- Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems Application in Meteorology
- Marine and Physical Oceanography
- Advanced Modeling and Data Visualization
- Climate Science Fundamentals
- Introduction to Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering
- Environmental Social Governance
- Advanced Modeling and Data Visualization